Recent September polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s. Multiple surveys indicate the gap has narrowed from earlier in the campaign, driven by tightening second-round simulations that are now statistically tied within margins of error. This positioning leaves substantial room for undecided voters, turnout differentials in key states, and last-minute campaign developments to compress the final margin between the top two contenders below five points. Fragmented support for other registered candidates further concentrates votes on the frontrunners, reinforcing trader consensus around a narrow outcome on October 4.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrimo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Lula da Silva <5% 49%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24.9%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 17%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 5.6%
$484,321 Vol.
$484,321 Vol.
3 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
17%
Lula da Silva <5%
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
25%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
<1%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Altro
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 49%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24.9%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 17%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 5.6%
$484,321 Vol.
$484,321 Vol.
3 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$20,038 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$46,054 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$42,316 Vol.
17%
Lula da Silva <5%
$43,634 Vol.
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$27,426 Vol.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$24,835 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$32,890 Vol.
25%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
$218,074 Vol.
<1%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
$9,720 Vol.
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
$9,114 Vol.
<1%
Altro
$10,219 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s. Multiple surveys indicate the gap has narrowed from earlier in the campaign, driven by tightening second-round simulations that are now statistically tied within margins of error. This positioning leaves substantial room for undecided voters, turnout differentials in key states, and last-minute campaign developments to compress the final margin between the top two contenders below five points. Fragmented support for other registered candidates further concentrates votes on the frontrunners, reinforcing trader consensus around a narrow outcome on October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$484,321Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s. Multiple surveys indicate the gap has narrowed from earlier in the campaign, driven by tightening second-round simulations that are now statistically tied within margins of error. This positioning leaves substantial room for undecided voters, turnout differentials in key states, and last-minute campaign developments to compress the final margin between the top two contenders below five points. Fragmented support for other registered candidates further concentrates votes on the frontrunners, reinforcing trader consensus around a narrow outcome on October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$484,321Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Recent September polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula in the high 30s to low 40s and Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s. Multiple surveys indicate the gap has narrowed from earlier in the campaign, driven by tightening second-round simulations that are now statistically tied within margins of error. This positioning leaves substantial room for undecided voters, turnout differentials in key states, and last-minute campaign developments to compress the final margin between the top two contenders below five points. Fragmented support for other registered candidates further concentrates votes on the frontrunners, reinforcing trader consensus around a narrow outcome on October 4.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Flávio Bolsonaro otterrà il 39% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
65%
Sì
Lula otterrà il 44% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
44%
Sì
Renan Santos otterrà tra il 4% e il 6% dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
32%
Sì
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