Anthropic’s consistent lead on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, anchored by the September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 with top scores in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-horizon tasks, underpins its 63.5% market-implied odds. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later delivered strong internal claims on math and computer-use metrics yet posted lower verified composite scores around 81, leaving it at 19.5%. Google, xAI, and Meta trail with fewer recent frontier gains, while smaller labs remain further back. With four months until year-end resolution likely based on Chatbot Arena or similar leaderboards, traders price in Anthropic’s depth in production-ready LLM capabilities over potential late-cycle shifts from rivals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 64%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,101,516 Vol.
$1,101,516 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
64%
OpenAI
20%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,101,516 Vol.
$1,101,516 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$126,117 Vol.
64%
OpenAI
$102,360 Vol.
20%
$67,685 Vol.
10%
xAI
$87,034 Vol.
3%
Meta
$69,078 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$65,048 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$68,270 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$78,125 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$79,873 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$73,284 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$51,626 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$62,689 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$59,202 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$56,925 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$54,200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s consistent lead on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, anchored by the September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 with top scores in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-horizon tasks, underpins its 63.5% market-implied odds. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later delivered strong internal claims on math and computer-use metrics yet posted lower verified composite scores around 81, leaving it at 19.5%. Google, xAI, and Meta trail with fewer recent frontier gains, while smaller labs remain further back. With four months until year-end resolution likely based on Chatbot Arena or similar leaderboards, traders price in Anthropic’s depth in production-ready LLM capabilities over potential late-cycle shifts from rivals.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,101,516Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s consistent lead on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, anchored by the September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 with top scores in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-horizon tasks, underpins its 63.5% market-implied odds. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later delivered strong internal claims on math and computer-use metrics yet posted lower verified composite scores around 81, leaving it at 19.5%. Google, xAI, and Meta trail with fewer recent frontier gains, while smaller labs remain further back. With four months until year-end resolution likely based on Chatbot Arena or similar leaderboards, traders price in Anthropic’s depth in production-ready LLM capabilities over potential late-cycle shifts from rivals.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,101,516Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s consistent lead on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, anchored by the September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 with top scores in agentic coding, reasoning, and long-horizon tasks, underpins its 63.5% market-implied odds. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later delivered strong internal claims on math and computer-use metrics yet posted lower verified composite scores around 81, leaving it at 19.5%. Google, xAI, and Meta trail with fewer recent frontier gains, while smaller labs remain further back. With four months until year-end resolution likely based on Chatbot Arena or similar leaderboards, traders price in Anthropic’s depth in production-ready LLM capabilities over potential late-cycle shifts from rivals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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