A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 57%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 30%
3rd hottest 29%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
36%
2nd hottest
57%
3rd hottest
29%
4th or lower
30%
2nd hottest 57%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 30%
3rd hottest 29%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$273 Vol.
36%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
57%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
29%
4th or lower
$250 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$523Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$523Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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