Traders see a 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, because its underlying carbon budget derives from the stable IPCC AR6 Working Group I estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ remaining from 2020 at 67% probability, divided by consistent annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continue at expected rates without abrupt acceleration or mitigation sufficient to trigger a recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute. No major IPCC assessment or revised carbon budget is scheduled before late 2026. A new comprehensive report, sharp global emissions drop, or updated observational datasets could still shift the deadline, though current evidence indicates low likelihood of such changes within the market window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
10% peluang
$12,623 Vol.
$12,623 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
10% peluang
$12,623 Vol.
$12,623 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Traders see a 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, because its underlying carbon budget derives from the stable IPCC AR6 Working Group I estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ remaining from 2020 at 67% probability, divided by consistent annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continue at expected rates without abrupt acceleration or mitigation sufficient to trigger a recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute. No major IPCC assessment or revised carbon budget is scheduled before late 2026. A new comprehensive report, sharp global emissions drop, or updated observational datasets could still shift the deadline, though current evidence indicates low likelihood of such changes within the market window.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$12,623Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2029Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Traders see a 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, because its underlying carbon budget derives from the stable IPCC AR6 Working Group I estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ remaining from 2020 at 67% probability, divided by consistent annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continue at expected rates without abrupt acceleration or mitigation sufficient to trigger a recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute. No major IPCC assessment or revised carbon budget is scheduled before late 2026. A new comprehensive report, sharp global emissions drop, or updated observational datasets could still shift the deadline, though current evidence indicates low likelihood of such changes within the market window.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$12,623Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see a 90.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will remain July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, because its underlying carbon budget derives from the stable IPCC AR6 Working Group I estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ remaining from 2020 at 67% probability, divided by consistent annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes confirm emissions continue at expected rates without abrupt acceleration or mitigation sufficient to trigger a recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute. No major IPCC assessment or revised carbon budget is scheduled before late 2026. A new comprehensive report, sharp global emissions drop, or updated observational datasets could still shift the deadline, though current evidence indicates low likelihood of such changes within the market window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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