Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, pointing to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with 3–6 hurricanes expected, underpin trader preference for the 1–3 range amid just two named storms and zero hurricanes through late July. Strengthening El Niño conditions are increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing tropical cyclogenesis potential across the main development region. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in key areas and historical analogs from prior El Niño years further support subdued activity, though peak months ahead introduce forecast uncertainty. Updated model runs in early August will clarify whether activity remains suppressed or rebounds toward the 4–6 bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
1-3 46%
4-6 40%
7+ 25%
0 8%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
0
8%
1-3
46%
4-6
40%
7+
25%
1-3 46%
4-6 40%
7+ 25%
0 8%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
0
$58 Vol.
8%
1-3
$0 Vol.
46%
4-6
$0 Vol.
40%
7+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, pointing to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with 3–6 hurricanes expected, underpin trader preference for the 1–3 range amid just two named storms and zero hurricanes through late July. Strengthening El Niño conditions are increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing tropical cyclogenesis potential across the main development region. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in key areas and historical analogs from prior El Niño years further support subdued activity, though peak months ahead introduce forecast uncertainty. Updated model runs in early August will clarify whether activity remains suppressed or rebounds toward the 4–6 bin.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$58Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, pointing to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with 3–6 hurricanes expected, underpin trader preference for the 1–3 range amid just two named storms and zero hurricanes through late July. Strengthening El Niño conditions are increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing tropical cyclogenesis potential across the main development region. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in key areas and historical analogs from prior El Niño years further support subdued activity, though peak months ahead introduce forecast uncertainty. Updated model runs in early August will clarify whether activity remains suppressed or rebounds toward the 4–6 bin.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$58Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, pointing to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with 3–6 hurricanes expected, underpin trader preference for the 1–3 range amid just two named storms and zero hurricanes through late July. Strengthening El Niño conditions are increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing tropical cyclogenesis potential across the main development region. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in key areas and historical analogs from prior El Niño years further support subdued activity, though peak months ahead introduce forecast uncertainty. Updated model runs in early August will clarify whether activity remains suppressed or rebounds toward the 4–6 bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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