Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
16°C or below 48%
17°C 30%
18°C 27%
19°C 18%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
16°C or below
48%
17°C
30%
18°C
27%
19°C
18%
20°C
13%
21°C
12%
22°C
7%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 48%
17°C 30%
18°C 27%
19°C 18%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
13%
21°C
$0 Vol.
12%
22°C
$0 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$10 Vol.
4%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$10Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan