Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
2% peluang
$64,698 Vol.
$64,698 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% peluang
$64,698 Vol.
$64,698 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$64,698Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,698Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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