National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent model runs favor a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and strong late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the combined 80.5% implied probability on the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins. Traders weigh these conditions against modest risks from afternoon convection or increased humidity that could trim peak readings closer to the seasonal average of 83°F. Updated short-range forecasts and any last-minute shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine market-implied odds before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in NYC on August 12?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 12?
86-87°F 52%
88-89°F 29%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 1.9%
BARU
$25,022 Vol.
BARU
$25,022 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
52%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 52%
88-89°F 29%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 1.9%
BARU
$25,022 Vol.
BARU
$25,022 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
$1,257 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$3,433 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$3,292 Vol.
18%
86-87°F
$5,344 Vol.
52%
88-89°F
$3,468 Vol.
29%
90-91°F
$2,772 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$2,610 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$760 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$543 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$381 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent model runs favor a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and strong late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the combined 80.5% implied probability on the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins. Traders weigh these conditions against modest risks from afternoon convection or increased humidity that could trim peak readings closer to the seasonal average of 83°F. Updated short-range forecasts and any last-minute shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$25,022Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent model runs favor a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and strong late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the combined 80.5% implied probability on the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins. Traders weigh these conditions against modest risks from afternoon convection or increased humidity that could trim peak readings closer to the seasonal average of 83°F. Updated short-range forecasts and any last-minute shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,022Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent model runs favor a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s on August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and strong late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the combined 80.5% implied probability on the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins. Traders weigh these conditions against modest risks from afternoon convection or increased humidity that could trim peak readings closer to the seasonal average of 83°F. Updated short-range forecasts and any last-minute shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine market-implied odds before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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