Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 70–130 daily transits. Recent tracking data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show averages of 4–14 vessels per day through late August and early September 2026, reflecting operator caution amid route restrictions, surveillance, sanctions exposure, and sporadic incidents that elevate war-risk premiums and insurance costs. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities favoring the 0–5 and 5–10 daily average buckets at month-end, as aggregated trader positions price in persistent constraints rather than rapid normalization. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran negotiations or enforcement signals that could alter risk assessments and prompt a rebound in visible or dark transits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
5-10 48%
0-5 36%
10-15 7%
15-20 3.4%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
36%
5-10
48%
10-15
7%
15-20
3%
20-25
2%
25-30
2%
30+
3%
5-10 48%
0-5 36%
10-15 7%
15-20 3.4%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
$3,072 Vol.
36%
5-10
$2,225 Vol.
48%
10-15
$2,800 Vol.
7%
15-20
$737 Vol.
3%
20-25
$290 Vol.
2%
25-30
$4,266 Vol.
2%
30+
$298 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 70–130 daily transits. Recent tracking data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show averages of 4–14 vessels per day through late August and early September 2026, reflecting operator caution amid route restrictions, surveillance, sanctions exposure, and sporadic incidents that elevate war-risk premiums and insurance costs. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities favoring the 0–5 and 5–10 daily average buckets at month-end, as aggregated trader positions price in persistent constraints rather than rapid normalization. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran negotiations or enforcement signals that could alter risk assessments and prompt a rebound in visible or dark transits.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Volume
$13,688Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 70–130 daily transits. Recent tracking data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show averages of 4–14 vessels per day through late August and early September 2026, reflecting operator caution amid route restrictions, surveillance, sanctions exposure, and sporadic incidents that elevate war-risk premiums and insurance costs. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities favoring the 0–5 and 5–10 daily average buckets at month-end, as aggregated trader positions price in persistent constraints rather than rapid normalization. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran negotiations or enforcement signals that could alter risk assessments and prompt a rebound in visible or dark transits.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$13,688Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial vessel traffic well below the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 70–130 daily transits. Recent tracking data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show averages of 4–14 vessels per day through late August and early September 2026, reflecting operator caution amid route restrictions, surveillance, sanctions exposure, and sporadic incidents that elevate war-risk premiums and insurance costs. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities favoring the 0–5 and 5–10 daily average buckets at month-end, as aggregated trader positions price in persistent constraints rather than rapid normalization. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran negotiations or enforcement signals that could alter risk assessments and prompt a rebound in visible or dark transits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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