Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 10.1%
35-39 6%
$14,530 Vol.
$14,530 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<25
47%
25-29
37%
30-34
10%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 10.1%
35-39 6%
$14,530 Vol.
$14,530 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$2,577 Vol.
47%
25-29
$5,403 Vol.
37%
30-34
$3,126 Vol.
10%
35-39
$1,621 Vol.
6%
40+
$1,804 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$14,530Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETSumber Resolusi
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,530Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETSumber Resolusi
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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