Moonshot AI’s recent benchmark leadership with Kimi K3, released in July 2026 as the world’s largest open-weight model at 2.8 trillion parameters, drives the tight 47% market-implied odds for second place among Chinese AI labs. The model’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context tasks, and third-party evaluations like BenchLM’s September 4 ranking (74.9, ahead of Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max) highlight its differentiation in developer adoption and multi-agent orchestration. Alibaba maintains competitive positioning through Qwen’s broad model family, high download volume, and enterprise scale, while DeepSeek’s efficiency edge and open-weight momentum create ongoing uncertainty. With resolution near, further benchmark updates or release cadence shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on relative capability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMoonshot 47%
Alibaba 32.7%
Z.ai 5%
Tencent 4.1%
$83,569 वॉल्यूम
$83,569 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
Moonshot
47%
Alibaba
33%
Z.ai
5%
Tencent
6%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot 47%
Alibaba 32.7%
Z.ai 5%
Tencent 4.1%
$83,569 वॉल्यूम
$83,569 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
Moonshot
$29,581 वॉल्यूम
47%
Alibaba
$8,207 वॉल्यूम
33%
Z.ai
$15,128 वॉल्यूम
5%
Tencent
$5,521 वॉल्यूम
6%
ByteDance
$4,840 वॉल्यूम
1%
Baidu
$4,213 वॉल्यूम
1%
Xiaomi
$5,099 वॉल्यूम
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,300 वॉल्यूम
<1%
MiniMax
$3,749 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$1,394 वॉल्यूम
<1%
StepFun
$1,537 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s recent benchmark leadership with Kimi K3, released in July 2026 as the world’s largest open-weight model at 2.8 trillion parameters, drives the tight 47% market-implied odds for second place among Chinese AI labs. The model’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context tasks, and third-party evaluations like BenchLM’s September 4 ranking (74.9, ahead of Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max) highlight its differentiation in developer adoption and multi-agent orchestration. Alibaba maintains competitive positioning through Qwen’s broad model family, high download volume, and enterprise scale, while DeepSeek’s efficiency edge and open-weight momentum create ongoing uncertainty. With resolution near, further benchmark updates or release cadence shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on relative capability.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$83,569समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s recent benchmark leadership with Kimi K3, released in July 2026 as the world’s largest open-weight model at 2.8 trillion parameters, drives the tight 47% market-implied odds for second place among Chinese AI labs. The model’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context tasks, and third-party evaluations like BenchLM’s September 4 ranking (74.9, ahead of Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max) highlight its differentiation in developer adoption and multi-agent orchestration. Alibaba maintains competitive positioning through Qwen’s broad model family, high download volume, and enterprise scale, while DeepSeek’s efficiency edge and open-weight momentum create ongoing uncertainty. With resolution near, further benchmark updates or release cadence shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on relative capability.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$83,569समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s recent benchmark leadership with Kimi K3, released in July 2026 as the world’s largest open-weight model at 2.8 trillion parameters, drives the tight 47% market-implied odds for second place among Chinese AI labs. The model’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context tasks, and third-party evaluations like BenchLM’s September 4 ranking (74.9, ahead of Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max) highlight its differentiation in developer adoption and multi-agent orchestration. Alibaba maintains competitive positioning through Qwen’s broad model family, high download volume, and enterprise scale, while DeepSeek’s efficiency edge and open-weight momentum create ongoing uncertainty. With resolution near, further benchmark updates or release cadence shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on relative capability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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