**Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Miami points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on the 80–85 °F buckets.** Typical August climatology features average lows near 78–80 °F, but recent model runs and observed nocturnal temperatures have trended several degrees warmer amid elevated sea-surface temperatures in the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf, reduced radiative cooling under humid, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat-island effect around Miami International Airport. **Key scientific drivers include persistently high dew points (mid-70s) that limit the diurnal temperature range, light southeasterly flow off warm waters, and the absence of any cold-front or tropical disturbance capable of advecting drier, cooler air.** With no major forecast shifts expected before the minimum is recorded early on the 16th, traders have priced the outcome near the upper end of the long-term August distribution while still leaving modest probability for a slightly cooler 80–81 °F reading if cloud cover or a brief shower increases overnight mixing.