Recent Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and ensemble models indicate a mostly cloudy pattern over Incheon on August 15, with daytime maxima likely peaking near 29–30 °C amid modest humidity, light winds, and 20–30 % rain chances that limit solar heating. This follows an early-August heatwave that pushed Seoul above 38 °C before a frontal passage introduced cooler maritime air. Historical mid-August baselines for the station average 28–31 °C, so the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28–30 °C reflects uncertainty in exact cloud cover timing and any late-day convection. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine the peak threshold.