Recent KMA and ensemble forecasts highlight a persistent subtropical high-pressure system and heat dome over the Korean Peninsula sustaining heatwave conditions, which underpins the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 34–36°C for Incheon’s August 4 maximum. Daytime maxima are projected in the mid-30s Celsius amid high humidity near 70% that limits nocturnal cooling, with key variables including afternoon convective cloud development, variable westerly winds, and the urban heat island effect that can add 1–2°C in Seoul relative to Incheon observations. Model consensus remains moderate due to timing uncertainties around any incoming trough or sea-breeze influence, while updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution risks near the 35–36°C thresholds.