Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement of unilateral transit rules, including vessel blacklists and attacks, have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz near crisis lows, with recent daily averages of 3-7 vessels versus a pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85-100. This backdrop underpins the closely matched 32% and 28.5% implied probabilities for 0-5 and 5-10 average daily transits by end-September, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption from high war-risk premiums, shuttle operations, and dark transits amid sanctions escalation. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks or further IRGC actions, which could shift volumes toward the 10-15 bucket if normalized routing resumes before month-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासितंबर के अंत में होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
सितंबर के अंत में होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 16%
25-30 10%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
0-5
32%
5-10
29%
10-15
16%
15-20
6%
20-25
7%
25-30
10%
30+
9%
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 16%
25-30 10%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
0-5
$133 वॉल्यूम
32%
5-10
$200 वॉल्यूम
29%
10-15
$224 वॉल्यूम
16%
15-20
$420 वॉल्यूम
6%
20-25
$45 वॉल्यूम
7%
25-30
$4,032 वॉल्यूम
10%
30+
$52 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement of unilateral transit rules, including vessel blacklists and attacks, have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz near crisis lows, with recent daily averages of 3-7 vessels versus a pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85-100. This backdrop underpins the closely matched 32% and 28.5% implied probabilities for 0-5 and 5-10 average daily transits by end-September, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption from high war-risk premiums, shuttle operations, and dark transits amid sanctions escalation. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks or further IRGC actions, which could shift volumes toward the 10-15 bucket if normalized routing resumes before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$5,106समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement of unilateral transit rules, including vessel blacklists and attacks, have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz near crisis lows, with recent daily averages of 3-7 vessels versus a pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85-100. This backdrop underpins the closely matched 32% and 28.5% implied probabilities for 0-5 and 5-10 average daily transits by end-September, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption from high war-risk premiums, shuttle operations, and dark transits amid sanctions escalation. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks or further IRGC actions, which could shift volumes toward the 10-15 bucket if normalized routing resumes before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$5,106समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement of unilateral transit rules, including vessel blacklists and attacks, have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz near crisis lows, with recent daily averages of 3-7 vessels versus a pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85-100. This backdrop underpins the closely matched 32% and 28.5% implied probabilities for 0-5 and 5-10 average daily transits by end-September, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption from high war-risk premiums, shuttle operations, and dark transits amid sanctions escalation. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks or further IRGC actions, which could shift volumes toward the 10-15 bucket if normalized routing resumes before month-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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