Recent Houthi threats and the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade have sharply curtailed tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while container flows show greater resilience, with some carriers resuming or maintaining Suez routings via dark transits. Weekly totals stabilized near 250–270 vessels in late July and early August per Kpler and MarineTraffic data, driven by non-tanker segments offsetting sparse energy shipments amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 0.75% of hull value. Trader consensus pricing 220+ transits at 44% implied probability reflects this partial stabilization and selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels, tempered by ongoing attack risks and potential last-minute rerouting ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया24 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
24 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
180-199 42%
२००-२१९ 27%
160-179 23%
<160 23%
नया
नया
30 अग, 2026
<160
23%
160-179
23%
180-199
42%
२००-२१९
27%
220+
44%
180-199 42%
२००-२१९ 27%
160-179 23%
<160 23%
नया
नया
30 अग, 2026
<160
$0 वॉल्यूम
23%
160-179
$0 वॉल्यूम
23%
180-199
$0 वॉल्यूम
42%
२००-२१९
$0 वॉल्यूम
27%
220+
$82 वॉल्यूम
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade have sharply curtailed tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while container flows show greater resilience, with some carriers resuming or maintaining Suez routings via dark transits. Weekly totals stabilized near 250–270 vessels in late July and early August per Kpler and MarineTraffic data, driven by non-tanker segments offsetting sparse energy shipments amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 0.75% of hull value. Trader consensus pricing 220+ transits at 44% implied probability reflects this partial stabilization and selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels, tempered by ongoing attack risks and potential last-minute rerouting ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$82समाप्ति तिथि
30 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade have sharply curtailed tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while container flows show greater resilience, with some carriers resuming or maintaining Suez routings via dark transits. Weekly totals stabilized near 250–270 vessels in late July and early August per Kpler and MarineTraffic data, driven by non-tanker segments offsetting sparse energy shipments amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 0.75% of hull value. Trader consensus pricing 220+ transits at 44% implied probability reflects this partial stabilization and selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels, tempered by ongoing attack risks and potential last-minute rerouting ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$82समाप्ति तिथि
30 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade have sharply curtailed tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while container flows show greater resilience, with some carriers resuming or maintaining Suez routings via dark transits. Weekly totals stabilized near 250–270 vessels in late July and early August per Kpler and MarineTraffic data, driven by non-tanker segments offsetting sparse energy shipments amid elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 0.75% of hull value. Trader consensus pricing 220+ transits at 44% implied probability reflects this partial stabilization and selective exemptions for certain flagged vessels, tempered by ongoing attack risks and potential last-minute rerouting ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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