Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the tanker Amzan, combined with an expanded blockade declaration have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted carriers to treat Suez/Bab el-Mandeb routings as conditional. Weekly AIS-visible transits have stabilized near 223–269 (roughly 32–38 daily), below pre-crisis baselines, though container operators such as Maersk and MSC have increased Asia-Europe volumes through the strait to more than 30 percent. This tension between partial commercial recovery and persistent geopolitical friction—evident in shifting mixes toward ballast and sanctioned traffic—explains the tight market-implied odds between the 25–29 and 30–34 bins. Traders are weighing near-term attack frequency, premium levels, and any further carrier commitments against the risk of renewed deterrence that could push volumes toward the sub-25 range by end-September.