**Persistent Houthi threats and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below historical norms of 60-plus vessels per day, positioning the 25-29 daily average as the market's clearest consensus outcome at end-August 2026.** Recent AIS and military tracking data show seven-day moving averages near 24-27 in early-to-mid August, with rolling counts for late August periods (e.g., 27-29 Aug at ~27/day and 30-31 Aug near 30.5/day) clustering in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s. Tanker flows remain especially constrained due to elevated war-risk premiums, selective attacks, and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while broader cargo volumes reflect partial stabilization but no full recovery. These levels reflect trader pricing of ongoing compliance risks, shadow-fleet activity, and the absence of major de-escalation ahead of resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअगस्त के अंत में बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
अगस्त के अंत में बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
25-29 71%
<25 20.0%
35-39 1.4%
40+ <1%
$37,595 वॉल्यूम
$37,595 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<25
23%
25-29
71%
30-34
<1%
35-39
1%
40+
<1%
25-29 71%
<25 20.0%
35-39 1.4%
40+ <1%
$37,595 वॉल्यूम
$37,595 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<25
$7,587 वॉल्यूम
23%
25-29
$9,267 वॉल्यूम
71%
30-34
$8,870 वॉल्यूम
<1%
35-39
$5,375 वॉल्यूम
1%
40+
$6,497 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi threats and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below historical norms of 60-plus vessels per day, positioning the 25-29 daily average as the market's clearest consensus outcome at end-August 2026.**
Recent AIS and military tracking data show seven-day moving averages near 24-27 in early-to-mid August, with rolling counts for late August periods (e.g., 27-29 Aug at ~27/day and 30-31 Aug near 30.5/day) clustering in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s. Tanker flows remain especially constrained due to elevated war-risk premiums, selective attacks, and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while broader cargo volumes reflect partial stabilization but no full recovery.
These levels reflect trader pricing of ongoing compliance risks, shadow-fleet activity, and the absence of major de-escalation ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$37,595समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
IMF PortWatchरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi threats and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below historical norms of 60-plus vessels per day, positioning the 25-29 daily average as the market's clearest consensus outcome at end-August 2026.**
Recent AIS and military tracking data show seven-day moving averages near 24-27 in early-to-mid August, with rolling counts for late August periods (e.g., 27-29 Aug at ~27/day and 30-31 Aug near 30.5/day) clustering in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s. Tanker flows remain especially constrained due to elevated war-risk premiums, selective attacks, and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while broader cargo volumes reflect partial stabilization but no full recovery.
These levels reflect trader pricing of ongoing compliance risks, shadow-fleet activity, and the absence of major de-escalation ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$37,595समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
IMF PortWatchरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent Houthi threats and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below historical norms of 60-plus vessels per day, positioning the 25-29 daily average as the market's clearest consensus outcome at end-August 2026.** Recent AIS and military tracking data show seven-day moving averages near 24-27 in early-to-mid August, with rolling counts for late August periods (e.g., 27-29 Aug at ~27/day and 30-31 Aug near 30.5/day) clustering in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s. Tanker flows remain especially constrained due to elevated war-risk premiums, selective attacks, and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while broader cargo volumes reflect partial stabilization but no full recovery. These levels reflect trader pricing of ongoing compliance risks, shadow-fleet activity, and the absence of major de-escalation ahead of resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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