Tesla's production of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab has begun at Giga Texas in 2026, yet the 84% market-implied odds favoring "No" on sub-$30,000 consumer sales this year stem primarily from persistent delays in achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) autonomy and necessary regulatory approvals. Early output remains limited and "agonizingly slow," with meaningful robotaxi deployment and private sales now widely expected only in 2027 amid software maturation challenges and the absence of confirmed retail availability. Key near-term catalysts include FSD version updates and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications that could accelerate timelines, though historical production ramps and autonomy hurdles continue to temper trader expectations for a 2026 retail launch at the targeted price.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
16% chance
$48,369 Vol.
$48,369 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
16% chance
$48,369 Vol.
$48,369 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's production of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab has begun at Giga Texas in 2026, yet the 84% market-implied odds favoring "No" on sub-$30,000 consumer sales this year stem primarily from persistent delays in achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) autonomy and necessary regulatory approvals. Early output remains limited and "agonizingly slow," with meaningful robotaxi deployment and private sales now widely expected only in 2027 amid software maturation challenges and the absence of confirmed retail availability. Key near-term catalysts include FSD version updates and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications that could accelerate timelines, though historical production ramps and autonomy hurdles continue to temper trader expectations for a 2026 retail launch at the targeted price.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$48,369Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's production of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab has begun at Giga Texas in 2026, yet the 84% market-implied odds favoring "No" on sub-$30,000 consumer sales this year stem primarily from persistent delays in achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) autonomy and necessary regulatory approvals. Early output remains limited and "agonizingly slow," with meaningful robotaxi deployment and private sales now widely expected only in 2027 amid software maturation challenges and the absence of confirmed retail availability. Key near-term catalysts include FSD version updates and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications that could accelerate timelines, though historical production ramps and autonomy hurdles continue to temper trader expectations for a 2026 retail launch at the targeted price.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$48,369Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's production of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab has begun at Giga Texas in 2026, yet the 84% market-implied odds favoring "No" on sub-$30,000 consumer sales this year stem primarily from persistent delays in achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) autonomy and necessary regulatory approvals. Early output remains limited and "agonizingly slow," with meaningful robotaxi deployment and private sales now widely expected only in 2027 amid software maturation challenges and the absence of confirmed retail availability. Key near-term catalysts include FSD version updates and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications that could accelerate timelines, though historical production ramps and autonomy hurdles continue to temper trader expectations for a 2026 retail launch at the targeted price.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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