Recent polling ahead of today's Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the AfD leading with 40-43% support, well ahead of the CDU at 22-24%, yet typically short of the roughly 45% vote share often required for an absolute majority once smaller parties clear or miss the 5% threshold. Final surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen indicate that parties including the Greens, BSW, and FDP hover near or below entry levels, creating narrow scenarios where AfD seat totals could reach or exceed the 42-seat majority line. Trader consensus on the low probability reflects these consistent figures, the party's classification by state authorities, and the absence of any coalition partners due to the established firewall among other parliamentary groups. No major late developments have altered the projected seat distribution.