Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the AfD at 35-36 percent, well below the roughly 50 percent vote share typically required for an absolute majority under the state's proportional representation system with overhang and leveling mandates. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap and INSA through early August show stable support levels with the SPD trailing at 28-29 percent and smaller parties fragmenting the remainder, leaving the AfD short of the approximately 36 seats needed. This persistent gap has produced trader consensus around the structural improbability of an outright majority. A sharp late-campaign surge in AfD support or unusually low turnout among other parties could narrow the margin, though no such movement has materialized in current data.