Recent developments in US-China trade relations have reinforced trader expectations against a new tariff agreement by August 31. A one-year truce negotiated in 2025 remains in effect with extensions through November 2026, including reduced reciprocal rates and paused export controls, yet the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit produced only limited commitments on agricultural purchases without advancing a broader deal. Persistent disputes over semiconductors, rare earth exports, and Section 301 tariffs continue to limit momentum, with no scheduled bilateral meetings or legislative actions in the immediate window that would resolve core issues. This backdrop aligns with the current 85% implied probability for no agreement, reflecting the time constraints and entrenched positions ahead of the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent developments in US-China trade relations have reinforced trader expectations against a new tariff agreement by August 31. A one-year truce negotiated in 2025 remains in effect with extensions through November 2026, including reduced reciprocal rates and paused export controls, yet the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit produced only limited commitments on agricultural purchases without advancing a broader deal. Persistent disputes over semiconductors, rare earth exports, and Section 301 tariffs continue to limit momentum, with no scheduled bilateral meetings or legislative actions in the immediate window that would resolve core issues. This backdrop aligns with the current 85% implied probability for no agreement, reflecting the time constraints and entrenched positions ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent developments in US-China trade relations have reinforced trader expectations against a new tariff agreement by August 31. A one-year truce negotiated in 2025 remains in effect with extensions through November 2026, including reduced reciprocal rates and paused export controls, yet the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit produced only limited commitments on agricultural purchases without advancing a broader deal. Persistent disputes over semiconductors, rare earth exports, and Section 301 tariffs continue to limit momentum, with no scheduled bilateral meetings or legislative actions in the immediate window that would resolve core issues. This backdrop aligns with the current 85% implied probability for no agreement, reflecting the time constraints and entrenched positions ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in US-China trade relations have reinforced trader expectations against a new tariff agreement by August 31. A one-year truce negotiated in 2025 remains in effect with extensions through November 2026, including reduced reciprocal rates and paused export controls, yet the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit produced only limited commitments on agricultural purchases without advancing a broader deal. Persistent disputes over semiconductors, rare earth exports, and Section 301 tariffs continue to limit momentum, with no scheduled bilateral meetings or legislative actions in the immediate window that would resolve core issues. This backdrop aligns with the current 85% implied probability for no agreement, reflecting the time constraints and entrenched positions ahead of the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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