A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSeptembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Septembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Deuxième plus chaud 57%
4e ou plus bas 41%
Le plus chaud 36%
3e plus chaud 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Le plus chaud
36%
Deuxième plus chaud
57%
3e plus chaud
26%
4e ou plus bas
41%
Deuxième plus chaud 57%
4e ou plus bas 41%
Le plus chaud 36%
3e plus chaud 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Le plus chaud
$273 Vol.
36%
Deuxième plus chaud
$0 Vol.
57%
3e plus chaud
$0 Vol.
26%
4e ou plus bas
$250 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$523Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$523Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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