Persistent large federal budget deficits, projected near $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026 and rising thereafter, continue to drive increases in debt held by the public, which recently exceeded $31 trillion and stands near 100 percent of GDP. Congressional Budget Office baselines show debt-to-GDP climbing to 101 percent by the end of fiscal 2026 and 120 percent by 2036 under current policies, fueled by net interest costs surpassing defense spending, entitlement growth, and the effects of the 2025 reconciliation legislation. The Supreme Court decision limiting certain tariff authorities has reduced expected revenues, widening the gap further. The debt limit, raised to $41.1 trillion in 2025, faces contact in 2027 absent new action. The fiscal year 2027 budget and appropriations process, along with any debt ceiling negotiations, represent the nearest scheduled inflection points that could alter the trajectory.