Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries shape trader sentiment in this open-seat contest, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan securing her party's nomination and early polling averages showing a modest to solid lead over Republican nominee Michele Tafoya. Flanagan's statewide profile as lieutenant governor, combined with consistent generic ballot advantages for Democrats and race ratings classifying the contest as likely Democratic, underpin the 90.5% implied probability. Tafoya's primary win provides a clear Republican standard-bearer but limited crossover appeal in a state where Democratic candidates have held the seat for decades. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate debates, turnout differentials, or unexpected controversies could still narrow the gap before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$47,473 Vol.
$47,473 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
91%
Républicain
10%
$47,473 Vol.
$47,473 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
$31,632 Vol.
91%
Républicain
$15,841 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries shape trader sentiment in this open-seat contest, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan securing her party's nomination and early polling averages showing a modest to solid lead over Republican nominee Michele Tafoya. Flanagan's statewide profile as lieutenant governor, combined with consistent generic ballot advantages for Democrats and race ratings classifying the contest as likely Democratic, underpin the 90.5% implied probability. Tafoya's primary win provides a clear Republican standard-bearer but limited crossover appeal in a state where Democratic candidates have held the seat for decades. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate debates, turnout differentials, or unexpected controversies could still narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$47,473Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries shape trader sentiment in this open-seat contest, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan securing her party's nomination and early polling averages showing a modest to solid lead over Republican nominee Michele Tafoya. Flanagan's statewide profile as lieutenant governor, combined with consistent generic ballot advantages for Democrats and race ratings classifying the contest as likely Democratic, underpin the 90.5% implied probability. Tafoya's primary win provides a clear Republican standard-bearer but limited crossover appeal in a state where Democratic candidates have held the seat for decades. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate debates, turnout differentials, or unexpected controversies could still narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$47,473Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries shape trader sentiment in this open-seat contest, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan securing her party's nomination and early polling averages showing a modest to solid lead over Republican nominee Michele Tafoya. Flanagan's statewide profile as lieutenant governor, combined with consistent generic ballot advantages for Democrats and race ratings classifying the contest as likely Democratic, underpin the 90.5% implied probability. Tafoya's primary win provides a clear Republican standard-bearer but limited crossover appeal in a state where Democratic candidates have held the seat for decades. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate debates, turnout differentials, or unexpected controversies could still narrow the gap before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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