Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance positions Miami’s overnight low on August 12 near 81°F under typical late-summer subtropical conditions, driving the market’s leading 80-81°F outcome at 40.5%. Persistent high humidity, light southeasterly flow, and the urban heat island effect limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Recent model runs show little deviation from climatological norms for early August, with scattered evening thunderstorms providing only marginal additional cooling. The tight clustering of probabilities around 78–83°F reflects this narrow forecast range, while lower or higher bins remain improbable absent an unexpected frontal passage or clear-sky radiative event. Updated NWS briefings and evening observations will refine these implied probabilities as the night progresses.