**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 25–27°C (combined ~78% implied probability) for Karachi’s overnight low on September 1, 2026, reflecting model consensus on typical late-monsoon minimum temperatures amid stable but humid conditions.** Current forecasts from multiple sources (including GFS-based runs and Pakistan Meteorological Department-aligned outlooks) consistently project an overnight low near 25–27°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with southwest winds of 5–7 m/s and high relative humidity (70–90%). These factors limit radiational cooling: persistent cloud cover traps longwave radiation, while elevated moisture reduces the temperature drop after sunset. Recent El Niño-linked suppression of monsoon rainfall has kept the pattern drier than normal, avoiding the stronger cooling sometimes seen with heavy overnight showers, yet also preventing extreme heat buildup. The narrow spread among leading outcomes (25°C at 26%, 26°C at 26%, 27°C at 26.5%) captures residual uncertainty in exact model timing of any brief clear spells or local wind shifts that could allow a degree or two more cooling. Lower probabilities for 24°C or below align with the absence of any strong high-pressure ridge or cold-air advection, while the low odds on 28°C+ reflect the unlikelihood of sustained warming overnight given the maritime influence and expected cloudiness. Historical September minima in Karachi average near 26°C, providing a stable baseline that current ensemble guidance has not significantly deviated from as of late August. Updated model runs and official Pakistan Met Department briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.