Recent numerical weather prediction runs from global models indicate overnight lows in Chengdu near 21–22°C on September 1, driven by moderate northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and light precipitation chances that limit radiative cooling. These conditions place the expected minimum squarely between the market’s tightly clustered leading outcomes around 19–23°C. Differentiation among these bins hinges on subtle factors such as the precise timing of any clearing skies after midnight, local urban heat-island effects at the official station, and small model biases in boundary-layer humidity; clearer or drier nocturnal conditions could push readings a degree lower while persistent cloud cover would favor 23°C or above. Traders are therefore weighting the latest ensemble guidance and any 48-hour model updates that could shift the final observed minimum.