**Trader consensus centers on a 6-7% vote share for United Torah Judaism (UTJ) in the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, reflecting the party’s consistent projection of 7-8 seats in recent polling averages.** This positioning stems from UTJ’s stable base among Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox voters, tempered by internal factional tensions—including a late-August/early-September crisis over list composition and attempts by groups like Shlomei Emunim and Belz to adjust their arrangement within the alliance—that could affect cohesion and turnout. A new competing Haredi party and broader backlash against Haredi demands for draft exemptions have added pressure, yet polls have shown little deviation from historical patterns of roughly 5-7% support. The 5-6% and 7-8% bands capture the narrow range of plausible outcomes given the party’s unified list submission and the community’s concentrated voting patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour6-7 % 56%
5 à 6 % 39%
7-8 % 10%
<5 % 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<5 %
7%
5 à 6 %
36%
6-7 %
56%
7-8 %
10%
8%+
4%
6-7 % 56%
5 à 6 % 39%
7-8 % 10%
<5 % 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<5 %
$186 Vol.
7%
5 à 6 %
$204 Vol.
36%
6-7 %
$160 Vol.
56%
7-8 %
$174 Vol.
10%
8%+
$285 Vol.
4%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Trader consensus centers on a 6-7% vote share for United Torah Judaism (UTJ) in the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, reflecting the party’s consistent projection of 7-8 seats in recent polling averages.**
This positioning stems from UTJ’s stable base among Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox voters, tempered by internal factional tensions—including a late-August/early-September crisis over list composition and attempts by groups like Shlomei Emunim and Belz to adjust their arrangement within the alliance—that could affect cohesion and turnout. A new competing Haredi party and broader backlash against Haredi demands for draft exemptions have added pressure, yet polls have shown little deviation from historical patterns of roughly 5-7% support. The 5-6% and 7-8% bands capture the narrow range of plausible outcomes given the party’s unified list submission and the community’s concentrated voting patterns.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,010Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Trader consensus centers on a 6-7% vote share for United Torah Judaism (UTJ) in the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, reflecting the party’s consistent projection of 7-8 seats in recent polling averages.**
This positioning stems from UTJ’s stable base among Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox voters, tempered by internal factional tensions—including a late-August/early-September crisis over list composition and attempts by groups like Shlomei Emunim and Belz to adjust their arrangement within the alliance—that could affect cohesion and turnout. A new competing Haredi party and broader backlash against Haredi demands for draft exemptions have added pressure, yet polls have shown little deviation from historical patterns of roughly 5-7% support. The 5-6% and 7-8% bands capture the narrow range of plausible outcomes given the party’s unified list submission and the community’s concentrated voting patterns.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,010Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a 6-7% vote share for United Torah Judaism (UTJ) in the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, reflecting the party’s consistent projection of 7-8 seats in recent polling averages.** This positioning stems from UTJ’s stable base among Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox voters, tempered by internal factional tensions—including a late-August/early-September crisis over list composition and attempts by groups like Shlomei Emunim and Belz to adjust their arrangement within the alliance—that could affect cohesion and turnout. A new competing Haredi party and broader backlash against Haredi demands for draft exemptions have added pressure, yet polls have shown little deviation from historical patterns of roughly 5-7% support. The 5-6% and 7-8% bands capture the narrow range of plausible outcomes given the party’s unified list submission and the community’s concentrated voting patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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