Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA's GFS show a warm southerly flow advecting air masses with temperatures supporting peak readings of 32–35°C across Warsaw on August 6, though afternoon instability may trigger isolated thunderstorms that cap the daily maximum through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Recent Central European heatwave conditions from late June, with verified peaks exceeding 40°C, provide a climatological baseline above the August average of 23–26°C, yet current ensemble spreads reflect variability in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any precipitation. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 32–34°C capture this genuine uncertainty, as small shifts in model guidance on convective initiation or wind speeds could alter the verified high by 1–2°C before official Polish Institute of Meteorology confirmation.