Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service equivalents and European centers project Warsaw's August 1 maximum near 31–32°C amid a lingering warm air mass and light southerly flow. Potential afternoon thundershowers, indicated in multiple runs with 40–50% probability, could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling, creating tight clustering around the 30–33°C outcomes. Low-level humidity and minimal wind shear further modulate daytime buildup, while recent heat warnings reflect above-average 850 hPa temperatures. Trader consensus reflects this narrow uncertainty band, with slight edges to 31–32°C reflecting the balance between clear-sky potential and convective inhibition. Updated model guidance on storm timing remains the key near-term catalyst.