The active southwest monsoon (Habagat) is the dominant driver suppressing maximum temperatures in Metro Manila for August 13, with PAGASA outlooks indicating widespread cloud cover, frequent rain showers, and 60–100% rain probabilities that limit solar heating. Official forecasts project daytime highs of 30–32°C under these conditions, aligning with the market's tight contest between 30°C (35.5%) and 31°C (43.5%) implied probabilities. Seasonal August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, but persistent monsoon moisture and reduced insolation favor the lower end of that range. Model consensus from PAGASA and international sources shows minimal disagreement, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued overcast skies against historical variability in monsoon intensity during mid-August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Manille le 13 août ?
Température la plus élevée à Manille le 13 août ?
31°C 44%
30°C 36%
29°C 10%
32°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
13 août 2026
25°C ou moins
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
10%
30°C
36%
31°C
44%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C ou plus
<1%
31°C 44%
30°C 36%
29°C 10%
32°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
13 août 2026
25°C ou moins
$216 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$282 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$243 Vol.
1%
28°C
$376 Vol.
3%
29°C
$1,179 Vol.
10%
30°C
$728 Vol.
36%
31°C
$1,059 Vol.
44%
32°C
$723 Vol.
9%
33°C
$982 Vol.
2%
34°C
$305 Vol.
1%
35°C ou plus
$308 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon (Habagat) is the dominant driver suppressing maximum temperatures in Metro Manila for August 13, with PAGASA outlooks indicating widespread cloud cover, frequent rain showers, and 60–100% rain probabilities that limit solar heating. Official forecasts project daytime highs of 30–32°C under these conditions, aligning with the market's tight contest between 30°C (35.5%) and 31°C (43.5%) implied probabilities. Seasonal August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, but persistent monsoon moisture and reduced insolation favor the lower end of that range. Model consensus from PAGASA and international sources shows minimal disagreement, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued overcast skies against historical variability in monsoon intensity during mid-August.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,399Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon (Habagat) is the dominant driver suppressing maximum temperatures in Metro Manila for August 13, with PAGASA outlooks indicating widespread cloud cover, frequent rain showers, and 60–100% rain probabilities that limit solar heating. Official forecasts project daytime highs of 30–32°C under these conditions, aligning with the market's tight contest between 30°C (35.5%) and 31°C (43.5%) implied probabilities. Seasonal August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, but persistent monsoon moisture and reduced insolation favor the lower end of that range. Model consensus from PAGASA and international sources shows minimal disagreement, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued overcast skies against historical variability in monsoon intensity during mid-August.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,399Date de fin
13 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The active southwest monsoon (Habagat) is the dominant driver suppressing maximum temperatures in Metro Manila for August 13, with PAGASA outlooks indicating widespread cloud cover, frequent rain showers, and 60–100% rain probabilities that limit solar heating. Official forecasts project daytime highs of 30–32°C under these conditions, aligning with the market's tight contest between 30°C (35.5%) and 31°C (43.5%) implied probabilities. Seasonal August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, but persistent monsoon moisture and reduced insolation favor the lower end of that range. Model consensus from PAGASA and international sources shows minimal disagreement, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued overcast skies against historical variability in monsoon intensity during mid-August.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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