Recent model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's August 16 high will likely peak near 33–35°C amid lingering summer high pressure, though Atlantic moisture and possible late-day showers introduce variability in peak readings. Recent extreme heat, with observed maxima exceeding 37°C earlier in the week, has moderated as a weak front approaches, influencing boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that caps daytime warming. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any instability, keeping 34°C and 35°C outcomes closely contested in trader assessments. Updated guidance on August 15 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 16 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 16 août ?
35°C 43%
34°C 37%
33°C 12%
36°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
12%
34°C
37%
35°C
43%
36°C
8%
37°C or higher
3%
35°C 43%
34°C 37%
33°C 12%
36°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
27°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$25 Vol.
3%
33°C
$81 Vol.
12%
34°C
$74 Vol.
37%
35°C
$46 Vol.
43%
36°C
$53 Vol.
8%
37°C or higher
$23 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's August 16 high will likely peak near 33–35°C amid lingering summer high pressure, though Atlantic moisture and possible late-day showers introduce variability in peak readings. Recent extreme heat, with observed maxima exceeding 37°C earlier in the week, has moderated as a weak front approaches, influencing boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that caps daytime warming. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any instability, keeping 34°C and 35°C outcomes closely contested in trader assessments. Updated guidance on August 15 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$352Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's August 16 high will likely peak near 33–35°C amid lingering summer high pressure, though Atlantic moisture and possible late-day showers introduce variability in peak readings. Recent extreme heat, with observed maxima exceeding 37°C earlier in the week, has moderated as a weak front approaches, influencing boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that caps daytime warming. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any instability, keeping 34°C and 35°C outcomes closely contested in trader assessments. Updated guidance on August 15 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$352Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's August 16 high will likely peak near 33–35°C amid lingering summer high pressure, though Atlantic moisture and possible late-day showers introduce variability in peak readings. Recent extreme heat, with observed maxima exceeding 37°C earlier in the week, has moderated as a weak front approaches, influencing boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that caps daytime warming. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any instability, keeping 34°C and 35°C outcomes closely contested in trader assessments. Updated guidance on August 15 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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