Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, driven by warm South China Sea surface temperatures and monsoon moisture, sets the stage for peak daily highs near 32–33°C on August 6, 2026, with market-implied odds clustered there at 29–30%. Official seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal to above-normal temperatures through October amid long-term warming trends, while short-range model runs show afternoon convection and variable cloud cover as the main variables that could suppress or allow brief spikes toward 34°C. High humidity and potential showers introduce genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, explaining why 31°C and 34°C outcomes retain meaningful trader support rather than a dominant consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Hong Kong le 6 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Hong Kong le 6 août ?
33°C 31%
32°C 29%
34°C 18%
31°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 août 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
8%
31°C
15%
32°C
29%
33°C
31%
34°C
18%
35°C
6%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 31%
32°C 29%
34°C 18%
31°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 août 2026
27°C or below
$551 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,104 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$606 Vol.
1%
30°C
$673 Vol.
8%
31°C
$731 Vol.
15%
32°C
$666 Vol.
29%
33°C
$812 Vol.
31%
34°C
$650 Vol.
18%
35°C
$871 Vol.
6%
36°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$161 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, driven by warm South China Sea surface temperatures and monsoon moisture, sets the stage for peak daily highs near 32–33°C on August 6, 2026, with market-implied odds clustered there at 29–30%. Official seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal to above-normal temperatures through October amid long-term warming trends, while short-range model runs show afternoon convection and variable cloud cover as the main variables that could suppress or allow brief spikes toward 34°C. High humidity and potential showers introduce genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, explaining why 31°C and 34°C outcomes retain meaningful trader support rather than a dominant consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$6,834Date de fin
6 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, driven by warm South China Sea surface temperatures and monsoon moisture, sets the stage for peak daily highs near 32–33°C on August 6, 2026, with market-implied odds clustered there at 29–30%. Official seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal to above-normal temperatures through October amid long-term warming trends, while short-range model runs show afternoon convection and variable cloud cover as the main variables that could suppress or allow brief spikes toward 34°C. High humidity and potential showers introduce genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, explaining why 31°C and 34°C outcomes retain meaningful trader support rather than a dominant consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,834Date de fin
6 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate, driven by warm South China Sea surface temperatures and monsoon moisture, sets the stage for peak daily highs near 32–33°C on August 6, 2026, with market-implied odds clustered there at 29–30%. Official seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal to above-normal temperatures through October amid long-term warming trends, while short-range model runs show afternoon convection and variable cloud cover as the main variables that could suppress or allow brief spikes toward 34°C. High humidity and potential showers introduce genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, explaining why 31°C and 34°C outcomes retain meaningful trader support rather than a dominant consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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