Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like the UK Met Office and other models place Chongqing's August 15 high in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius (around 34–37°C), aligning with the market's clustering around 35–36°C as the most probable outcomes. Chongqing's location in the Sichuan Basin fosters heat retention under subtropical high pressure, with typical August maxima of 34–38°C amid high humidity and limited ventilation; current sunny conditions with 35–36°C readings support persistence unless scattered thunderstorms develop. Model consensus shows modest day-to-day variability driven by steering patterns and moisture, while climatological baselines indicate rare excursions above 38°C without strong anomalous warming. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.