Wyoming's entrenched Republican advantage in federal contests drives the market's strong Republican positioning for this open Senate seat. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis opted not to seek reelection, opening the Class II seat, yet all major forecasters rate the November 2026 general election solid or safe Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 18 features U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman as the frontrunner, backed by prominent endorsements, while Democratic contenders face structural disadvantages in the state's voter base and turnout patterns. The implied probability aligns with historical GOP margins and the absence of competitive polling shifts. An unforeseen primary outcome or major candidate-specific development before November could still alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$16,713 Vol.
$16,713 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
2%
$16,713 Vol.
$16,713 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$11,081 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$5,632 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Wyoming's entrenched Republican advantage in federal contests drives the market's strong Republican positioning for this open Senate seat. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis opted not to seek reelection, opening the Class II seat, yet all major forecasters rate the November 2026 general election solid or safe Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 18 features U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman as the frontrunner, backed by prominent endorsements, while Democratic contenders face structural disadvantages in the state's voter base and turnout patterns. The implied probability aligns with historical GOP margins and the absence of competitive polling shifts. An unforeseen primary outcome or major candidate-specific development before November could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$16,713End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Wyoming's entrenched Republican advantage in federal contests drives the market's strong Republican positioning for this open Senate seat. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis opted not to seek reelection, opening the Class II seat, yet all major forecasters rate the November 2026 general election solid or safe Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 18 features U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman as the frontrunner, backed by prominent endorsements, while Democratic contenders face structural disadvantages in the state's voter base and turnout patterns. The implied probability aligns with historical GOP margins and the absence of competitive polling shifts. An unforeseen primary outcome or major candidate-specific development before November could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$16,713End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming's entrenched Republican advantage in federal contests drives the market's strong Republican positioning for this open Senate seat. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis opted not to seek reelection, opening the Class II seat, yet all major forecasters rate the November 2026 general election solid or safe Republican. A crowded GOP primary on August 18 features U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman as the frontrunner, backed by prominent endorsements, while Democratic contenders face structural disadvantages in the state's voter base and turnout patterns. The implied probability aligns with historical GOP margins and the absence of competitive polling shifts. An unforeseen primary outcome or major candidate-specific development before November could still alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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