Ukrainian forces have conducted localized counterattacks in the Lyman direction of Donetsk Oblast, with Russian milbloggers reporting advances toward Kolodyazi and nearby settlements such as Myrne as of early September 2026. These efforts align with broader Ukrainian operations that liberated over 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements during the Oleksandrivka counteroffensive earlier in the year, primarily in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian forces continue slow, limited gains elsewhere, particularly around Pokrovsk and the Fortress Belt, while both sides emphasize drone warfare and attritional tactics amid high casualties. Trader assessments of re-entry by specific deadlines reflect the contested nature of these frontline shifts, influenced by Ukrainian momentum in select sectors and ongoing Russian pressure across multiple axes. No major diplomatic or force-generation events are scheduled to immediately alter the local balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
79%
December 31
84%
$7,424 Vol.
October 31
$4,264 Vol.
79%
December 31
$3,159 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have conducted localized counterattacks in the Lyman direction of Donetsk Oblast, with Russian milbloggers reporting advances toward Kolodyazi and nearby settlements such as Myrne as of early September 2026. These efforts align with broader Ukrainian operations that liberated over 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements during the Oleksandrivka counteroffensive earlier in the year, primarily in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian forces continue slow, limited gains elsewhere, particularly around Pokrovsk and the Fortress Belt, while both sides emphasize drone warfare and attritional tactics amid high casualties. Trader assessments of re-entry by specific deadlines reflect the contested nature of these frontline shifts, influenced by Ukrainian momentum in select sectors and ongoing Russian pressure across multiple axes. No major diplomatic or force-generation events are scheduled to immediately alter the local balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$7,424End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have conducted localized counterattacks in the Lyman direction of Donetsk Oblast, with Russian milbloggers reporting advances toward Kolodyazi and nearby settlements such as Myrne as of early September 2026. These efforts align with broader Ukrainian operations that liberated over 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements during the Oleksandrivka counteroffensive earlier in the year, primarily in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian forces continue slow, limited gains elsewhere, particularly around Pokrovsk and the Fortress Belt, while both sides emphasize drone warfare and attritional tactics amid high casualties. Trader assessments of re-entry by specific deadlines reflect the contested nature of these frontline shifts, influenced by Ukrainian momentum in select sectors and ongoing Russian pressure across multiple axes. No major diplomatic or force-generation events are scheduled to immediately alter the local balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$7,424End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have conducted localized counterattacks in the Lyman direction of Donetsk Oblast, with Russian milbloggers reporting advances toward Kolodyazi and nearby settlements such as Myrne as of early September 2026. These efforts align with broader Ukrainian operations that liberated over 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements during the Oleksandrivka counteroffensive earlier in the year, primarily in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian forces continue slow, limited gains elsewhere, particularly around Pokrovsk and the Fortress Belt, while both sides emphasize drone warfare and attritional tactics amid high casualties. Trader assessments of re-entry by specific deadlines reflect the contested nature of these frontline shifts, influenced by Ukrainian momentum in select sectors and ongoing Russian pressure across multiple axes. No major diplomatic or force-generation events are scheduled to immediately alter the local balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions