**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 75.5% stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least May 2026 for assurances that CXMT—listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies roster—will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, which would impose licensing requirements and complicate sourcing. Lawmakers, including House China Committee Chair John Moolenaar, have urged tighter restrictions, citing national security risks. While Apple has tested CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, talks remain early and capacity-constrained, with CXMT’s output largely booked through 2027 and expansion slated for later years. Any potential use appears limited to China-market devices, leaving meaningful 2026 commercial purchases unlikely without major policy shifts before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25% chance
$21,410 Vol.
$21,410 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
25% chance
$21,410 Vol.
$21,410 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 75.5% stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least May 2026 for assurances that CXMT—listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies roster—will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, which would impose licensing requirements and complicate sourcing. Lawmakers, including House China Committee Chair John Moolenaar, have urged tighter restrictions, citing national security risks.
While Apple has tested CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, talks remain early and capacity-constrained, with CXMT’s output largely booked through 2027 and expansion slated for later years. Any potential use appears limited to China-market devices, leaving meaningful 2026 commercial purchases unlikely without major policy shifts before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$21,410End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 75.5% stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least May 2026 for assurances that CXMT—listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies roster—will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, which would impose licensing requirements and complicate sourcing. Lawmakers, including House China Committee Chair John Moolenaar, have urged tighter restrictions, citing national security risks.
While Apple has tested CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, talks remain early and capacity-constrained, with CXMT’s output largely booked through 2027 and expansion slated for later years. Any potential use appears limited to China-market devices, leaving meaningful 2026 commercial purchases unlikely without major policy shifts before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,410End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 75.5% stems primarily from persistent U.S.-China regulatory and geopolitical barriers.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since at least May 2026 for assurances that CXMT—listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies roster—will avoid Commerce Department Entity List placement, which would impose licensing requirements and complicate sourcing. Lawmakers, including House China Committee Chair John Moolenaar, have urged tighter restrictions, citing national security risks. While Apple has tested CXMT DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, talks remain early and capacity-constrained, with CXMT’s output largely booked through 2027 and expansion slated for later years. Any potential use appears limited to China-market devices, leaving meaningful 2026 commercial purchases unlikely without major policy shifts before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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