Tennessee's 6th congressional district features a strongly Republican partisan voting index and consistent history of large GOP margins in federal contests. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's gubernatorial bid, drew multiple Republican primary contenders, with state Representative Johnny Garrett securing the nomination on August 6, 2026. Forecasters rate the general election Solid R or Safe R, reflecting the district's suburban and rural makeup east of Nashville. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage plus Garrett's primary victory over former Representative Van Hilleary. Democratic nominee Mike Croley faces steep structural barriers to competitiveness. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-06 House Election Winner
TN-06 House Election Winner
$12,393 Vol.
$12,393 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$12,393 Vol.
$12,393 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$8,446 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$3,947 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 6th congressional district features a strongly Republican partisan voting index and consistent history of large GOP margins in federal contests. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's gubernatorial bid, drew multiple Republican primary contenders, with state Representative Johnny Garrett securing the nomination on August 6, 2026. Forecasters rate the general election Solid R or Safe R, reflecting the district's suburban and rural makeup east of Nashville. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage plus Garrett's primary victory over former Representative Van Hilleary. Democratic nominee Mike Croley faces steep structural barriers to competitiveness. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$12,393End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 6th congressional district features a strongly Republican partisan voting index and consistent history of large GOP margins in federal contests. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's gubernatorial bid, drew multiple Republican primary contenders, with state Representative Johnny Garrett securing the nomination on August 6, 2026. Forecasters rate the general election Solid R or Safe R, reflecting the district's suburban and rural makeup east of Nashville. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage plus Garrett's primary victory over former Representative Van Hilleary. Democratic nominee Mike Croley faces steep structural barriers to competitiveness. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,393End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 6th congressional district features a strongly Republican partisan voting index and consistent history of large GOP margins in federal contests. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's gubernatorial bid, drew multiple Republican primary contenders, with state Representative Johnny Garrett securing the nomination on August 6, 2026. Forecasters rate the general election Solid R or Safe R, reflecting the district's suburban and rural makeup east of Nashville. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects this structural advantage plus Garrett's primary victory over former Representative Van Hilleary. Democratic nominee Mike Croley faces steep structural barriers to competitiveness. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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