Redistricting in 2026 altered Tennessee’s 5th congressional district by removing portions of Davidson County and stretching it across more rural, Republican-leaning areas in Middle Tennessee, producing a Cook Partisan Voting Index rated R+10. Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles, who won the seat in 2024, faces a primary challenge from former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher on the same August 6 ballot that also features a crowded Democratic field including Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder. These structural changes and the district’s altered voter composition underpin trader consensus around an 82.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election against the Democratic opponent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-05 House Election Winner
TN-05 House Election Winner
$40,526 Vol.
$40,526 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
19%
$40,526 Vol.
$40,526 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$18,682 Vol.
83%
Democratic Party
$21,844 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting in 2026 altered Tennessee’s 5th congressional district by removing portions of Davidson County and stretching it across more rural, Republican-leaning areas in Middle Tennessee, producing a Cook Partisan Voting Index rated R+10. Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles, who won the seat in 2024, faces a primary challenge from former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher on the same August 6 ballot that also features a crowded Democratic field including Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder. These structural changes and the district’s altered voter composition underpin trader consensus around an 82.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election against the Democratic opponent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$40,526End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting in 2026 altered Tennessee’s 5th congressional district by removing portions of Davidson County and stretching it across more rural, Republican-leaning areas in Middle Tennessee, producing a Cook Partisan Voting Index rated R+10. Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles, who won the seat in 2024, faces a primary challenge from former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher on the same August 6 ballot that also features a crowded Democratic field including Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder. These structural changes and the district’s altered voter composition underpin trader consensus around an 82.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election against the Democratic opponent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,526End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting in 2026 altered Tennessee’s 5th congressional district by removing portions of Davidson County and stretching it across more rural, Republican-leaning areas in Middle Tennessee, producing a Cook Partisan Voting Index rated R+10. Incumbent Republican Andy Ogles, who won the seat in 2024, faces a primary challenge from former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher on the same August 6 ballot that also features a crowded Democratic field including Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder. These structural changes and the district’s altered voter composition underpin trader consensus around an 82.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election against the Democratic opponent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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