**Federal investigations into Minnesota’s multibillion-dollar social services fraud and alleged interference with immigration enforcement continue to shape trader views on whether Governor Tim Walz will face jail time.** A Republican-led House Oversight report detailed claims that senior officials, including Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, received repeated warnings about fraud in Medicaid and related programs dating back to 2019 yet failed to halt payments. In June 2026, Vice President JD Vance referred the matter to the DOJ for potential criminal review. A separate DOJ probe into possible obstruction of federal ICE operations issued subpoenas that a federal judge quashed in June, describing them as politically motivated. No criminal charges or indictments have been filed against Walz personally, though dozens of providers and operators have faced prosecution. Walz announced in January 2026 that he would not seek a third term. These developments, combined with the absence of formal accusations against the governor, keep implied probabilities of incarceration by late 2026 low while leaving room for future DOJ actions to alter the outlook.