President Trump’s January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests in Minnesota over ICE enforcement operations and the fatal shooting of a civilian by an agent remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment. Escalating federal immigration actions, including the deployment of thousands of agents, have fueled demonstrations in states resisting those policies, prompting repeated references to the rarely used 1807 statute that permits domestic military deployment without state consent. No invocation has occurred since the 1992 Los Angeles riots, though earlier 2025 threats tied to deportation efforts and National Guard disputes were blocked by courts. Reform legislation narrowing presidential authority and requiring congressional approval continues to advance, while upcoming enforcement deadlines and potential protest flare-ups could shift probabilities. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether political or legal barriers will hold.