Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 2026 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) holding steady support near 20 percent. A Demoskop survey conducted 29 July–10 August recorded 20.2 percent, while earlier Novus and Indikator readings from June and July ranged from 19.2 to 20.4 percent. These figures sit above the 19 percent threshold and align with the party’s 20.5 percent result in 2022, sustaining modest momentum in the right-leaning bloc. Traders therefore assign the “Over” outcome an implied probability of 58 percent, reflecting the narrow but consistent lead in current voting-intention data ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
58% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Over
58% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 2026 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) holding steady support near 20 percent. A Demoskop survey conducted 29 July–10 August recorded 20.2 percent, while earlier Novus and Indikator readings from June and July ranged from 19.2 to 20.4 percent. These figures sit above the 19 percent threshold and align with the party’s 20.5 percent result in 2022, sustaining modest momentum in the right-leaning bloc. Traders therefore assign the “Over” outcome an implied probability of 58 percent, reflecting the narrow but consistent lead in current voting-intention data ahead of the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
Volume
$1,109End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 2026 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) holding steady support near 20 percent. A Demoskop survey conducted 29 July–10 August recorded 20.2 percent, while earlier Novus and Indikator readings from June and July ranged from 19.2 to 20.4 percent. These figures sit above the 19 percent threshold and align with the party’s 20.5 percent result in 2022, sustaining modest momentum in the right-leaning bloc. Traders therefore assign the “Over” outcome an implied probability of 58 percent, reflecting the narrow but consistent lead in current voting-intention data ahead of the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,109End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 2026 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) holding steady support near 20 percent. A Demoskop survey conducted 29 July–10 August recorded 20.2 percent, while earlier Novus and Indikator readings from June and July ranged from 19.2 to 20.4 percent. These figures sit above the 19 percent threshold and align with the party’s 20.5 percent result in 2022, sustaining modest momentum in the right-leaning bloc. Traders therefore assign the “Over” outcome an implied probability of 58 percent, reflecting the narrow but consistent lead in current voting-intention data ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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