**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has raced to $553 million in nine days, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power plus strong word-of-mouth. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability (48%) to a sub-$900 million total by August 31, reflecting typical superhero front-loading and the steep week-to-week drops already visible in its second weekend. The 36.5% chance on the 900–920 million band captures upside from continued premium-format dominance, while ranges above $980 million carry far lower odds because historical Marvel legs rarely sustain the required pace over the remaining three weekends. Key near-term catalysts include the next box-office update and any August competition that could accelerate the decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 49%
900 - 920m 22%
1020 - 1040m 20%
920 - 940m 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
49%
900 - 920m
36%
920 - 940m
12%
940 - 960m
5%
960 - 980m
12%
980 - 1000m
13%
1000 - 1020m
5%
1020 - 1040m
20%
1040 - 1060m
15%
1060 - 1080m
10%
1080m+
8%
<900m 49%
900 - 920m 22%
1020 - 1040m 20%
920 - 940m 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$165 Vol.
49%
900 - 920m
$65 Vol.
36%
920 - 940m
$304 Vol.
12%
940 - 960m
$794 Vol.
5%
960 - 980m
$45 Vol.
12%
980 - 1000m
$372 Vol.
13%
1000 - 1020m
$86 Vol.
5%
1020 - 1040m
$30 Vol.
20%
1040 - 1060m
$45 Vol.
15%
1060 - 1080m
$57 Vol.
10%
1080m+
$51 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has raced to $553 million in nine days, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power plus strong word-of-mouth. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability (48%) to a sub-$900 million total by August 31, reflecting typical superhero front-loading and the steep week-to-week drops already visible in its second weekend. The 36.5% chance on the 900–920 million band captures upside from continued premium-format dominance, while ranges above $980 million carry far lower odds because historical Marvel legs rarely sustain the required pace over the remaining three weekends. Key near-term catalysts include the next box-office update and any August competition that could accelerate the decline.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,014End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has raced to $553 million in nine days, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power plus strong word-of-mouth. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability (48%) to a sub-$900 million total by August 31, reflecting typical superhero front-loading and the steep week-to-week drops already visible in its second weekend. The 36.5% chance on the 900–920 million band captures upside from continued premium-format dominance, while ranges above $980 million carry far lower odds because historical Marvel legs rarely sustain the required pace over the remaining three weekends. Key near-term catalysts include the next box-office update and any August competition that could accelerate the decline.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$2,014End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has raced to $553 million in nine days, fueled by Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power plus strong word-of-mouth. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability (48%) to a sub-$900 million total by August 31, reflecting typical superhero front-loading and the steep week-to-week drops already visible in its second weekend. The 36.5% chance on the 900–920 million band captures upside from continued premium-format dominance, while ranges above $980 million carry far lower odds because historical Marvel legs rarely sustain the required pace over the remaining three weekends. Key near-term catalysts include the next box-office update and any August competition that could accelerate the decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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