Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds the leading position in the race for the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent registered polls from July and August show him ahead in first-round estimates at 37–43% of valid votes, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) and well clear of Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSol), and Taty Cristina (DC). Mitidieri’s advantage stems from his incumbency, party convention formalization in early August, and consolidation in voter preference following the close of candidate registrations on August 15. Valmir remains the primary challenger but trails in most post-July surveys, while minor candidates register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural edge typically held by sitting governors in Brazilian state races, though the outcome remains subject to the final weeks of campaigning ahead of the first-round ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 74%
Valmir de Francisquinho 20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
74%
Valmir de Francisquinho
20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 74%
Valmir de Francisquinho 20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
$8,247 Vol.
74%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$941 Vol.
20%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$330 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$391 Vol.
1%
Dr. Helton
$455 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$385 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds the leading position in the race for the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent registered polls from July and August show him ahead in first-round estimates at 37–43% of valid votes, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) and well clear of Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSol), and Taty Cristina (DC). Mitidieri’s advantage stems from his incumbency, party convention formalization in early August, and consolidation in voter preference following the close of candidate registrations on August 15. Valmir remains the primary challenger but trails in most post-July surveys, while minor candidates register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural edge typically held by sitting governors in Brazilian state races, though the outcome remains subject to the final weeks of campaigning ahead of the first-round ballot.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$10,749End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds the leading position in the race for the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent registered polls from July and August show him ahead in first-round estimates at 37–43% of valid votes, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) and well clear of Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSol), and Taty Cristina (DC). Mitidieri’s advantage stems from his incumbency, party convention formalization in early August, and consolidation in voter preference following the close of candidate registrations on August 15. Valmir remains the primary challenger but trails in most post-July surveys, while minor candidates register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural edge typically held by sitting governors in Brazilian state races, though the outcome remains subject to the final weeks of campaigning ahead of the first-round ballot.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,749End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds the leading position in the race for the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent registered polls from July and August show him ahead in first-round estimates at 37–43% of valid votes, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) and well clear of Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSol), and Taty Cristina (DC). Mitidieri’s advantage stems from his incumbency, party convention formalization in early August, and consolidation in voter preference following the close of candidate registrations on August 15. Valmir remains the primary challenger but trails in most post-July surveys, while minor candidates register negligible support. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and the structural edge typically held by sitting governors in Brazilian state races, though the outcome remains subject to the final weeks of campaigning ahead of the first-round ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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