Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s October 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling advantages and coalition positioning. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data’s mid-August release, show her at 29% against Humberto Costa (PT) at 20% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18%, with the remainder scattered across more than a dozen other names. Arraes benefits from her integration into the PSB-led state ticket headed by João Campos, strong name recognition from prior gubernatorial and mayoral runs, and high social-media engagement focused on national issues aligned with the federal government. Costa, an incumbent seeking a third term, maintains a solid but trailing base within the PT, while Mendonça Filho and lower-polling candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte and Túlio Gadêlha trail further behind. No major late developments have altered this ordering in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 74%
Humberto Costa 17.0%
Mendonça Filho 7.4%
Carlos Sant'Anna 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
74%
Humberto Costa
17%
Mendonça Filho
7%
Carlos Sant'Anna
5%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
4%
Mailson da Silva Neto
3%
Samuel Timoteo
3%
Túlio Gadêlha
1%
Gorett Bitu
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
1%
Mariano Macedo
1%
Marília Arraes 74%
Humberto Costa 17.0%
Mendonça Filho 7.4%
Carlos Sant'Anna 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$5,112 Vol.
74%
Humberto Costa
$467 Vol.
17%
Mendonça Filho
$146 Vol.
7%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$143 Vol.
5%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$146 Vol.
4%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$174 Vol.
3%
Samuel Timoteo
$168 Vol.
3%
Túlio Gadêlha
$146 Vol.
1%
Gorett Bitu
$146 Vol.
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$146 Vol.
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
$143 Vol.
1%
Mariano Macedo
$154 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s October 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling advantages and coalition positioning. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data’s mid-August release, show her at 29% against Humberto Costa (PT) at 20% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18%, with the remainder scattered across more than a dozen other names. Arraes benefits from her integration into the PSB-led state ticket headed by João Campos, strong name recognition from prior gubernatorial and mayoral runs, and high social-media engagement focused on national issues aligned with the federal government. Costa, an incumbent seeking a third term, maintains a solid but trailing base within the PT, while Mendonça Filho and lower-polling candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte and Túlio Gadêlha trail further behind. No major late developments have altered this ordering in the past month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$7,093End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s October 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling advantages and coalition positioning. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data’s mid-August release, show her at 29% against Humberto Costa (PT) at 20% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18%, with the remainder scattered across more than a dozen other names. Arraes benefits from her integration into the PSB-led state ticket headed by João Campos, strong name recognition from prior gubernatorial and mayoral runs, and high social-media engagement focused on national issues aligned with the federal government. Costa, an incumbent seeking a third term, maintains a solid but trailing base within the PT, while Mendonça Filho and lower-polling candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte and Túlio Gadêlha trail further behind. No major late developments have altered this ordering in the past month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,093End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s October 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling advantages and coalition positioning. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data’s mid-August release, show her at 29% against Humberto Costa (PT) at 20% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18%, with the remainder scattered across more than a dozen other names. Arraes benefits from her integration into the PSB-led state ticket headed by João Campos, strong name recognition from prior gubernatorial and mayoral runs, and high social-media engagement focused on national issues aligned with the federal government. Costa, an incumbent seeking a third term, maintains a solid but trailing base within the PT, while Mendonça Filho and lower-polling candidates such as Eduardo da Fonte and Túlio Gadêlha trail further behind. No major late developments have altered this ordering in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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