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Politics·Brazil

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place

Carlos Viana 56%

Marília Campos 36%

Domingos Sávio 7.0%

Marcelo Aro 2.5%

Polymarket

$20,615 Vol.

Carlos Viana 56%

Marília Campos 36%

Domingos Sávio 7.0%

Marcelo Aro 2.5%

Polymarket

$20,615 Vol.

icon for Carlos Viana

Carlos Viana

$7,409 Vol.

56%

icon for Marília Campos

Marília Campos

$4,030 Vol.

36%

icon for Domingos Sávio

Domingos Sávio

$2,002 Vol.

7%

icon for Marcelo Aro

Marcelo Aro

$635 Vol.

2%

icon for Marcelo Heringer

Marcelo Heringer

$507 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marco Antônio Superman

Marco Antônio Superman

$516 Vol.

<1%

icon for Arcanjo Pimenta

Arcanjo Pimenta

$499 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jordano Metalúrgico

Jordano Metalúrgico

$517 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juiz Ramon Moreira

Juiz Ramon Moreira

$452 Vol.

<1%

icon for Victória Mello Vic

Victória Mello Vic

$496 Vol.

<1%

icon for Manoel Carvalho

Manoel Carvalho

$512 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ana Luiza do MLB

Ana Luiza do MLB

$476 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fidélis Alcântara

Fidélis Alcântara

$547 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Galassi

Gustavo Galassi

$485 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tião Pessoa

Tião Pessoa

$496 Vol.

<1%

icon for Áurea Carolina

Áurea Carolina

$525 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlin Moura

Carlin Moura

$510 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and earlier Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys shows a fragmented field for Minas Gerais's two Senate seats, with Marília Campos (PT) holding the narrowest lead in the low-to-mid teens while Carlos Viana (PSD), the incumbent seeking re-election, Domingos Sávio (PL), Marcelo Aro (PP), and several others trail in single digits amid 20-25% undecided voters. Traders price Viana highest for second place because his statewide name recognition, prior Senate term, and PSD positioning give him a steadier base than challengers still consolidating support. The contest remains tight due to the open second-vote dynamic, limited campaign momentum this far from October 2026, and the potential for late shifts in alliances or turnout among key blocs. Clearer separation could emerge from upcoming party conventions, major endorsements, or intensified advertising that consolidates the scattered anti-PT or center-right vote behind one contender.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,615
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and earlier Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys shows a fragmented field for Minas Gerais's two Senate seats, with Marília Campos (PT) holding the narrowest lead in the low-to-mid teens while Carlos Viana (PSD), the incumbent seeking re-election, Domingos Sávio (PL), Marcelo Aro (PP), and several others trail in single digits amid 20-25% undecided voters. Traders price Viana highest for second place because his statewide name recognition, prior Senate term, and PSD positioning give him a steadier base than challengers still consolidating support. The contest remains tight due to the open second-vote dynamic, limited campaign momentum this far from October 2026, and the potential for late shifts in alliances or turnout among key blocs. Clearer separation could emerge from upcoming party conventions, major endorsements, or intensified advertising that consolidates the scattered anti-PT or center-right vote behind one contender.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,615
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Viana" at 56%, followed by "Marília Campos" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" has generated $20.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Carlos Viana" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marília Campos" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.