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Politics·São Tomé And Príncipe

São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner

icon for São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politics·São Tomé And Príncipe

São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner

Carlos Vila Nova 99.9%

Nito Abreu <1%

Nino Monteiro <1%

Elsa Pinto <1%

Polymarket

$41,190 Vol.

Carlos Vila Nova 99.9%

Nito Abreu <1%

Nino Monteiro <1%

Elsa Pinto <1%

Polymarket

$41,190 Vol.

icon for Carlos Vila Nova

Carlos Vila Nova

$29,772 Vol.

100%

icon for Nito Abreu

Nito Abreu

$9,197 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nino Monteiro

Nino Monteiro

$601 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elsa Pinto

Elsa Pinto

$867 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jorge Bom Jesus

Jorge Bom Jesus

$753 Vol.

<1%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026, with a potential second round to be scheduled if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, this market will resolve to the winner of the specified election. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.The São Tomé and Príncipe presidential race remains tightly balanced ahead of the July 19 first round because a crowded field of candidates, including incumbent Carlos Vila Nova of the ADI party, is expected to fragment the vote in a two-round system that requires an outright majority. Recent constitutional disputes over cabinet changes and institutional tensions have added uncertainty without consolidating support behind any single contender. Traders see limited separation as opposition figures such as Nito Abreu, Jorge Bom Jesus, and others compete for similar voter bases ahead of September legislative elections. Clearer polling trends, formal alliances, or last-minute candidate withdrawals could shift implied probabilities, while the absence of a dominant frontrunner keeps first-round odds compressed across multiple outcomes.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026, with a potential second round to be scheduled if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, this market will resolve to the winner of the specified election.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
Volume
$41,190
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026, with a potential second round to be scheduled if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, this market will resolve to the winner of the specified election. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026, with a potential second round to be scheduled if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, this market will resolve to the winner of the specified election. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.The São Tomé and Príncipe presidential race remains tightly balanced ahead of the July 19 first round because a crowded field of candidates, including incumbent Carlos Vila Nova of the ADI party, is expected to fragment the vote in a two-round system that requires an outright majority. Recent constitutional disputes over cabinet changes and institutional tensions have added uncertainty without consolidating support behind any single contender. Traders see limited separation as opposition figures such as Nito Abreu, Jorge Bom Jesus, and others compete for similar voter bases ahead of September legislative elections. Clearer polling trends, formal alliances, or last-minute candidate withdrawals could shift implied probabilities, while the absence of a dominant frontrunner keeps first-round odds compressed across multiple outcomes.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026, with a potential second round to be scheduled if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, this market will resolve to the winner of the specified election.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
Volume
$41,190
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026, with a potential second round to be scheduled if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, this market will resolve to the winner of the specified election. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Vila Nova" at 100%, followed by "Nito Abreu" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner" has generated $41.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner" is "Carlos Vila Nova" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nito Abreu" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "São Tomé Presidential Election First Round Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.