Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor seeking reelection, holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina's October 4 first-round contest due to his 2022 runoff victory with over 70% of valid votes and consistent polling leads, including a recent Quaest survey showing him near 50% against fragmented challengers. Traders reflect this through implied probabilities exceeding 90%, driven by his broad coalition including Novo, active campaign events across regions, and opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues of the PSD and Gelson Merísio of the PSB trailing far behind. A first-round outright win appears the most likely path, though scenarios like unusually high turnout shifts among undecided voters or last-minute coalition changes could theoretically force a runoff on October 25.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJorginho Mello 97.0%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 1.7%
João Rodrigues 1.0%
Afrânio Boppré <1%
$122,689 Vol.
$122,689 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
97%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
2%
João Rodrigues
1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Gelson Merisio
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Marcos Vieira
<1%
Adriano Silva
<1%
Jorginho Mello 97.0%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 1.7%
João Rodrigues 1.0%
Afrânio Boppré <1%
$122,689 Vol.
$122,689 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
$30,774 Vol.
97%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
$16,004 Vol.
2%
João Rodrigues
$3,030 Vol.
1%
Afrânio Boppré
$2,415 Vol.
<1%
Gelson Merisio
$2,255 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$64,175 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Vieira
$2,128 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Silva
$1,908 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor seeking reelection, holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina's October 4 first-round contest due to his 2022 runoff victory with over 70% of valid votes and consistent polling leads, including a recent Quaest survey showing him near 50% against fragmented challengers. Traders reflect this through implied probabilities exceeding 90%, driven by his broad coalition including Novo, active campaign events across regions, and opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues of the PSD and Gelson Merísio of the PSB trailing far behind. A first-round outright win appears the most likely path, though scenarios like unusually high turnout shifts among undecided voters or last-minute coalition changes could theoretically force a runoff on October 25.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$122,689End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor seeking reelection, holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina's October 4 first-round contest due to his 2022 runoff victory with over 70% of valid votes and consistent polling leads, including a recent Quaest survey showing him near 50% against fragmented challengers. Traders reflect this through implied probabilities exceeding 90%, driven by his broad coalition including Novo, active campaign events across regions, and opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues of the PSD and Gelson Merísio of the PSB trailing far behind. A first-round outright win appears the most likely path, though scenarios like unusually high turnout shifts among undecided voters or last-minute coalition changes could theoretically force a runoff on October 25.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$122,689End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor seeking reelection, holds a dominant position in Santa Catarina's October 4 first-round contest due to his 2022 runoff victory with over 70% of valid votes and consistent polling leads, including a recent Quaest survey showing him near 50% against fragmented challengers. Traders reflect this through implied probabilities exceeding 90%, driven by his broad coalition including Novo, active campaign events across regions, and opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues of the PSD and Gelson Merísio of the PSB trailing far behind. A first-round outright win appears the most likely path, though scenarios like unusually high turnout shifts among undecided voters or last-minute coalition changes could theoretically force a runoff on October 25.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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