**Dry conditions have kept August 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, positioning totals below 425 mm as the clear market leader.** Hong Kong Observatory data through mid-to-late August show only about 213 mm accumulated, with many days recording zero or trace amounts and limited contributions from the southwest monsoon or tropical systems. Late-month forecasts indicate scattered thunderstorms but modest additional accumulation unlikely to close the gap to higher brackets. This observed deficit, driven by subdued convective activity and fewer typhoon influences than typical for the peak rainy season, underpins the 79% implied probability for the lowest outcome. Remaining days offer limited upside potential given current steering patterns and model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm 79%
475-500mm 12.2%
500-525mm 10.3%
525-550mm 5.2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
81%
425-450mm
12%
450-475mm
6%
475-500mm
12%
500-525mm
10%
525-550mm
5%
550-600mm
4%
600-650mm
<1%
650-700mm
4%
700mm+
5%
<425mm 79%
475-500mm 12.2%
500-525mm 10.3%
525-550mm 5.2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$4,418 Vol.
81%
425-450mm
$370 Vol.
12%
450-475mm
$714 Vol.
6%
475-500mm
$404 Vol.
12%
500-525mm
$268 Vol.
10%
525-550mm
$318 Vol.
5%
550-600mm
$283 Vol.
4%
600-650mm
$459 Vol.
<1%
650-700mm
$465 Vol.
4%
700mm+
$2,149 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Dry conditions have kept August 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, positioning totals below 425 mm as the clear market leader.** Hong Kong Observatory data through mid-to-late August show only about 213 mm accumulated, with many days recording zero or trace amounts and limited contributions from the southwest monsoon or tropical systems. Late-month forecasts indicate scattered thunderstorms but modest additional accumulation unlikely to close the gap to higher brackets. This observed deficit, driven by subdued convective activity and fewer typhoon influences than typical for the peak rainy season, underpins the 79% implied probability for the lowest outcome. Remaining days offer limited upside potential given current steering patterns and model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$9,847End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Dry conditions have kept August 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, positioning totals below 425 mm as the clear market leader.** Hong Kong Observatory data through mid-to-late August show only about 213 mm accumulated, with many days recording zero or trace amounts and limited contributions from the southwest monsoon or tropical systems. Late-month forecasts indicate scattered thunderstorms but modest additional accumulation unlikely to close the gap to higher brackets. This observed deficit, driven by subdued convective activity and fewer typhoon influences than typical for the peak rainy season, underpins the 79% implied probability for the lowest outcome. Remaining days offer limited upside potential given current steering patterns and model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,847End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Dry conditions have kept August 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453 mm, positioning totals below 425 mm as the clear market leader.** Hong Kong Observatory data through mid-to-late August show only about 213 mm accumulated, with many days recording zero or trace amounts and limited contributions from the southwest monsoon or tropical systems. Late-month forecasts indicate scattered thunderstorms but modest additional accumulation unlikely to close the gap to higher brackets. This observed deficit, driven by subdued convective activity and fewer typhoon influences than typical for the peak rainy season, underpins the 79% implied probability for the lowest outcome. Remaining days offer limited upside potential given current steering patterns and model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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